Thursday, August 12, 2010

I'm Picking WHO?!

I was hoping to reveal this amazing bit of foresight on the show tonight. However, we had a technical issue that could not be fixed by the time we were supposed to go on the air. I was bummed because Chris Arreola was going to be on and he's always a great interview.

Tonight, I was planning to grace all of you with a magnificent prediction, that will sound crazy now, but in hindsight will be nothing short of brilliant.

Jean Pascal is going to beat Chad Dawson this Saturday night.

I don't mean he's going to get a gift decision in his hometown. Jean Pascal is going to legitimately win the fight.

Here's why:

Chad Dawson did not train properly for this fight. This is something no one else is talking about. He only put in about 4 weeks in the gym. He talks a good game about being in great shape, taking advice from Marvin Hagler and wanting to be the best in the world. But Chad Dawson, while an excellent fighter, believes his own hype.

Additionally, I'm not convinced the 4 weeks he did put in were a great 4 weeks.

Without going into too much detail, let's just say Chad has had quite a few distractions lately, both personally and professionally. An elite boxer heading into a tough fight should be 100% focused on the task at hand. That's why they leave their families and do nothing but eat, sleep and think boxing for the 6 - 8 weeks they're in camp. Dawson hasn't done that.

If he were fighting a decent opponent, his raw talent would probably be enough to get him the win. But he's not fighting a decent opponent. He's fighting a very good one. Not only that, Pascal is one tough S.O.B. In his last fight, which he won, he had to have his shoulder popped back in three times. That's a guy who wants to win. I don't think he'll be discouraged by Dawson's speed in the early rounds.

Pascal will just keep plugging away, trying to bring the fight to Dawson. Eventually, Chad's lack of preparation will catch up to him and Pascal will start nailing him. We know Chad doesn't have the greatest chin in the world. To his credit, every time he's been down, he's gotten back up to win. But this time, there won't be enough gas in the tank.

Also, if Dawson is at all concerned that he didn't train properly, that could effect his confidence and make him fight more tentatively than usual, which won't win over the judges.

Jean Pascal wins by split decision (with a questionable scorecard for Dawson).

What do you think? Leave comments below.

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